Baseline LCOE
36.90 €/MWh
Fossil Fuel Reliance
Overnight CAPEX
€32.62 B
Low Upfront Capital
Annual Emissions
6.95 Mt/yr
0.13 g CO2/kWh
Simple Payback
10.63 Yrs
IRR: 8.05%
Zero-CO2 LCOE
58.94 €/MWh
+22.04 € Green Premium
Overnight CAPEX
€57.49 B
+€24.87 B Capital Inflow
CO2 Emissions Saved
6.95 Mt/yr
100% Clean Grid
Annual OPEX
€1.33 M/yr
Virtually Zero Fuel
Unlimited CO2 Baseline Case
Zero-CO2 Carbon-Limited Case
| Metric | Zero-CO2 (Limited) | Unlimited (Baseline) |
|---|
| Overnight CAPEX (€ B) | 57.494 | 32.619 |
| Annualized CAPEX (€ B/yr) | 4.934 | 2.799 |
| Annual OPEX (€ M/yr) | 1.330 | 953.920 |
| LCOE (€/MWh) | 58.94 | 36.90 |
| Project IRR (%) | 4.86% | 8.05% |
| Simple Payback Period (Years) | 14.29 | 10.63 |
| Total Annual Emissions (MtCO2/yr) | 0.000 | 6.950 |
Net LCOH (Green)
€4.89 / kg
146.56 €/MWh (LHV)
Export Run Cost
€12.61 B/yr
CAPEX Intensive
Water Demand
21.57 Mm³
Desal Cost: €32.36 M/yr
Project IRR
9.56%
Payback: 8.92 Yrs
Net LCOH (Blue)
€2.55 / kg
76.59 €/MWh (LHV)
Export Run Cost
€7.67 B/yr
Balanced Grid Sharing
CO2 Sequestered
43.55 Mt/yr
Deep Geologic Storage
Project IRR
15.27%
Payback: 6.22 Yrs
Net LCOH (Grey)
€2.13 / kg
63.95 €/MWh (LHV)
Export Run Cost
€5.91 B/yr
Lowest Untaxed Cost
Atmospheric Venting
59.15 Mt/yr
High Carbon Footprint
Project IRR
17.54%
Payback: 5.51 Yrs
Table 6: Comparison of Financial Performance Under Zero Tax vs 100 €/t CO2 Tax
| Financial Metric | Scenario A (No Tax / Taxed) | Scenario B (No Tax / Taxed) | Scenario C (No Tax / Taxed) |
|---|
| Annual System Cost [B €/yr] | 12.61 / 13.29 | 7.67 / 8.35 | 5.91 / 11.83 |
| Total System NPV [B €] | -2.65 / -9.99 | -2.23 / -9.56 | +7.11 / -56.47 |
| Project IRR (%) | 9.56% / 8.78% | 15.27% / 12.77% | 17.54% / N/A* |
| Simple Payback Period [Years] | 8.92 / 9.44 | 6.22 / 7.21 | 5.51 / N/A* |
Annualized System Cost Comparison
Operational Expenditure (OPEX) Breakdown
Table 2: Summary of H2 Export Costs & Net LCOH Breakdown
| Metric | Scenario A (Green) | Scenario B (Blue) | Scenario C (Grey) |
|---|
| Export Run Cost [B €] | 12.61 | 7.67 | 5.91 |
| Baseline Zero-Export Cost [B €] | 2.35 | 2.31 | 1.44 |
| Net H2 Cost [B €] | 10.26 | 5.36 | 4.48 |
| Net LCOH [€/MWh] | 146.56 | 76.59 | 63.95 |
| Net LCOH LHV [€/kg] | 4.89 | 2.55 | 2.13 |
Table 4: Gross CO2 Generation (Mt)
| CO2 Metric | Scenario A | Scenario B | Scenario C |
|---|
| Vented Emissions | 6.82 Mt | 6.82 Mt | 59.15 Mt |
| Captured (CCS) | 25.22 Mt | 43.55 Mt | 75.90 Mt |
| Total Gross CO2 | 32.05 Mt | 50.37 Mt | 135.04 Mt |
Table 5: Desalination & Water Footprint
| Metric | Scenario A | Scenario B | Scenario C |
|---|
| Water Demand (Mm³) | 21.57 | 15.96 | 10.65 |
| Desalination Cost (M€/yr) | 32.36 | 23.94 | 15.97 |
Annualized System Cost Breakdown
OPEX Breakdown (Natural Gas Procurement)
Table 7: Summary of H2 Export Costs and Net LCOH Breakdown
| Metric | Hybrid Scenario |
|---|
| Export Run Cost [B €] | 8.42 |
| Baseline Zero-Export Cost [B €] | 2.95 |
| Net H2 Cost [B €] | 5.47 |
| Net LCOH LHV [€/kg] | 2.60 |
Table 8: Financial Evaluation for Hybrid Scenario (r = 7.10%)
| Financial Metric | Hybrid Scenario |
|---|
| Selling Price (+1 €/kg) [€/kg] | 3.60 |
| Annual Total System Cost [B €/yr] | 9.48 |
| CO2 Tax Liability [B €/yr] | 0.79 |
| Project IRR (%) | 12.54% |
| Simple Payback Period [Years] | 7.31 |
| Discounted Payback Period [Years] | 10.67 |
Table 9: CO2 Mass Balance & Vented Emissions
| CO2 Metric / Source | Value |
|---|
| Net Atmospheric Emissions (Vented) | 7.92 Mt |
| Geologically Sequestered (CCS) | 44.65 Mt (84.9%) |
| Total Gross CO2 Generated | 52.57 Mt |
| Vented: Oil | 5.70 Mt |
| Vented: SMR-CC | 2.03 Mt |
| Vented: Industrial Gas | 0.19 Mt |
Table 10: Multi-Technology Water Consumption
| Metric | Hybrid Scenario |
|---|
| Total H2 Output | 70.92 TWh / 2.13 Mt |
| Total Water Demand | 15.96 Mm³ |
| Estimated Desalination Cost | 23.94 M€/yr |
| Desalination Marginal Cost | 0.0112 €/kg H2 |
| Desalination Electricity Share | 0.050% |
Hybrid Net LCOH
€2.60 / kg
78.15 €/MWh (LHV)
Dominant Tech
SMR with CC
Blue H2 Dominates
Project IRR
12.54%
> 7.10% WACC Hurdle
Capital Recovery
7.31 Yrs
Discounted: 10.67 Yrs
Annualized System Cost Breakdown
| Financial Metric | Hybrid Scenario |
|---|
| LCOH LHV Cost | €2.60 / kg |
| Selling Price (+1 €/kg) | €3.60 / kg |
| Annual Total System Cost | €9.48 B/yr |
| Project IRR | 12.54% |
| Simple Payback Period | 7.31 Years |
| Resource Metric | Hybrid Scenario |
|---|
| Total H2 Output | 70.92 TWh / 2.13 Mt |
| Total Water Demand | 15.96 Mm³ |
| Estimated Desalination Cost | €23.94 M/yr |
| Desalination Marginal Cost | €0.0112 / kg H2 |
| Scenario | Decision Variables | Constraints | Non-Zero Entries |
|---|
| Scenario A (Electrolysis only) | 2,228,414 | 4,596,589 | 9,611,971 |
| Scenario B (Electrolysis + SMR-CC) | 2,263,466 | 4,666,680 | 9,752,143 |
| Scenario C (Electrolysis + SMR + SMR-CC) | 2,298,518 | 4,736,772 | 9,962,395 |
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PyPSA-Libya Repository
The complete model code, input data time series, scenario configuration scripts, and optimization routines are publicly available on GitHub.